New U.S. Congress’ Outlook on Skilled Immigration Reform

In the last hours before the mid-term elections in the United States, it is possible to draw on the conclusions of the political experts that the Republicans are likely to seize control of the House of Representatives in the U.S. Congress.

How is this related to immigration?  Our office has been consistently asked to provide thoughts on the political mood here in Washington for an immigration reform.  We have written in the past about certain proposals which, as of today, remain just that – proposals.   Over the last few months the political climate in Washington, DC has not permitted the Obama administration to focus and tackle one of its stated priorities – comprehensive immigration reform.  We do not expect anything to happen with respect to a comprehensive immigration reform even after a new Congress takes office.

However, with a new (more business-oriented) party in control of the House, there may be some chance of  a skilled immigration reform.  Since most of our individual and corporate clients and readers are keenly interested in skilled U.S. immigration, we thought that we would share some thoughts on the political climate and a recent article by the Economist about the possibility of a skilled immigration reform.

According to the Economist article, which cites research by the Hamilton Project (a liberal-leaning group), the number of foreign workers in America has been declining for some time and this decline might reflect America’s diminished appeal to the world’s most sought-after workers, as well as brightening prospects in their own countries.   However, as the U.S. comes out of recession over the next months (hopefully) or year, the demand of U.S. highly skilled visas is likely to increase.  The problem standing in front of any immigration reform is illegal immigration.

Legislators from both parties have at various times advanced proposals that would smooth the way for skilled migrants, but they have usually foundered on the more intractable problem of dealing with illegal immigration. “These two issues can and should be separate,” says Michael Greenstone of the Hamilton Project. “We are giving up economic growth by putting the two issues together.”

The reality is that some proponents of immigration reform are afraid to separate skilled immigration from comprehensive immigration reform because the push for comprehensive immigration can lose momentum (and congressional support) very quickly if the skilled immigration is tackled independently.

A Republican takeover of the House might increase the chance of a bill on skilled immigration.  That, however, is not the Republicans’ priority.  According to the Economist, Lamar Smith, the Republican who would probably become chairman of the House judiciary committee, is more focused on deporting illegal immigrants and strengthening the border than on proposing skilled immigration solutions.  The business-friendly republicans may still push for skilled immigration bills and if President Obama is to accomplish anything in the next Congress, he needs to find common ground with Republicans on something.