May 2011 Visa Bulletin – EB-2 India Advances; FB1 and FB2B Unchanged; Future Visa Bulletin Predictions

The U.S. State Department just released the May 2011 Visa Bulletin which is the eighth Visa Bulletin for the FY2011 fiscal year.    The major headline in the upcoming month’s bulletin is the forward movement in EB-2 India (after eight months of no movement) and the continued (but slow) slow forward movement in FB2A (after few significant backward movements).

Summary of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin – Employment-Based (EB)

Below is a summary of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to employment-based petitions:

• EB-1 remains current across the board.
• EB-2 ROW (Rest of World), Mexico and Philippines remain current, EB-2 China moves forward by one (1) week to August 1, 2006, while EB-2 India moves forward (for the first time in 8 months) by seven (7) weeks to July 1, 2006.
• EB-3 ROW and EB-3 Philippines move forward by one (1) months to August 22, 2005, EB-3 China  moves forward by six (6) weeks to April 15, 2004, while EB-3 India  moves forward by one (1) week to April 15, 2002.  EB-3 Mexico moves forward by four (4) months to September 8, 2004.
• The “other worker” category remains unchanged at  April 22, 2003 for China.  It moves forward by six (6) weeks to September 8, 2003 for ROW, Mexico and Philippines.  It moves forward by one  (1) week to April 15, 2002 for India .

Summary of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin – Family-Based (FB)

Below is a summary of the May 2011 Visa Bulletin with respect to family-based petitions:

• FB1 ROW, China and India remain unchanged at May 1, 2004.  FB1 Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks to March 1, 1993.  FB1 Philippines moves forward by three and a half (3.5) months to July 15, 1995.
• FB2A moves forward by nine (9) weeks to June 8, 2007 for ROW, China, India, and Philippines.  FB2A Mexico moves forward by five (5) months to January 1, 2007.
• FB2B ROW, China and India remain (again) unchanged at April 15, 2003.  FB2B Mexico moves forward by two (2) weeks to August 1, 1992.  FB2B FB2B Philippines moves forward by three (3) months to March 1, 2000.

Slow Movement  for Employment-based Petitions, Except EB-2 India; No (or Minor) Movement in Family-based Priority Dates

The slow forward movement across many employment categories continues, as expected, although we have started seeing notable movement in the EB-2 India category after eight months of no activity.  The EB-2 India movement is due to the carryover of visa numbers from the EB-1 category (also see note below).    Unfortunately, EB-3 India moved forward by only one  week (in comparison to the last two visa bulletins when it advanced by three weeks per month).

We continue to see the FB2A category move forward (by two months), after the significant retrogression over the past several months.  We wish to reiterate that the forward movement in FB2A is expected to be slow over the next  few months, according to indications from the State Department.   Unfortunately, due to strong demand, the FB1 category remains unchanged, after it retrogressed by 8 months last month.  This is due to heavy demand in the FB1 category which is expected to continue and further lack of movement (or backward movement) in FB1 is possible.

Prediction for Visa Number Availability for the Upcoming Months

Employment-Based.

According to the State Department, demand in the EB-1 category has been “extremely low” and, as a result, EB-1 is expected to remain current.  Similarly, EB-2 ROW is expected to remain current, but the demand in EB-2 India and EB-2 China is expected to continue to weigh on these two categories.   The State Department’s “best case scenario” for the upcoming few months is as follows (the estimates below are per month):

• EB-2 China – none to three weeks expected through July; August/September estimate not possible at this time;
• EB-2 India – one or more weeks, possibly followed by additional movement if demand remains stable;  August/September estimate not possible at this time;
• EB-3 ROW – three to six weeks;
• EB-3 China – one to three weeks;
• EB-3 India – none to two weeks;
• EB-3 Mexico – some forward movement, but difficult to predict; and
• EB-3 Philippines – three to six weeks.