Visa Bulletin and Visa Number Predictions and Availability Comments – Bad News for EB India and China

During the annual AILA conference, Mr. Charles Oppenheim of the Department of State Visa Office (he is the person who is largely involved in the movement of visa numbers) provided some thoughts and predictions on the movement of visa numbers for the remainder of the fiscal year 2009 (FY2009 the end of which is September 30, 2009) and beyond.

Lower Unused Visa Numbers in EB-4 and EB-5.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, EB-4 and EB-5 have seen increased demand which may result in retrogression.  However, what is more important, the high demand of EB-4 and EB-5 has resulted in a fewer visa numbers being made available to other categories, such as EB-2 and EB-3.  This has resulted in an increased pressure on the visa numbers for EB-3, EB-2 and possibly EB-1 for China and India.

EB-1 Demand Increased; EB-1 China or India May See Retrogression.  Mr. Oppenheim noted that demand for EB-1 Rest of World (ROW) has increased but it expected to remain current until the end of FY2009.  However, EB-1 for China and India, while current for July 2009, may require the establishment of a cut-off date if EB-1 demand remains heavy.  This is important because EB-1 for China and India may no longer be the “instant concurrent-filing” category.  We urge our readers and clients from China or India who are considering EB-1 to consider filing as early as possible.

EB-2 China and India – “Grim” Prognosis; Long Delays Are Likely.  Mr. Oppenheim did not deliver good news for EB-2 China and India applicants.  The July 2009 cut-off date is January 1, 2009, and may become unavailable in August or September 2009.  There are reported 25,000 EB-2 India cases which have been reviewed by USCIS and are waiting at the Department of State for a visa number. By law, all countries have a limit of 2,800 EB-2 numbers per year plus any “fall across” and “fall down” numbers from EB-1, EB-4 or EB-5 categories or from the EB-2 category from other countries.  Therefore, and unfortunately, without legislative relief, the waiting time for Indian or Chinese EB-2 applicants may be measured in years, even decades.

EB-3 ROW.  The EB-3 will remain unavailable the remainder of this fiscal year. As the Department of Labor worked its way through the long backlog of Alien Labor Certification cases, there were tens of thousands of I-485 applications with priority dates in 2004 and earlier years which were processed by USCIS this year. The Department of State currently estimates that, as of October 1, 2009, the EB3 worldwide cut-off date will be March 1, 2003. There will be extended delays in this category.

EB-3 China, India and Mexico.  According to Mr. Oppenheim, EB-3 numbers for China, India and Mexico applicants will be unavailable for the remainder of the fiscal year.  Furthermore, it is estimated that, based on current demand for visa numbers that as of October 1, 2009, the following cut-off dates could be established: China will be March 1, 2003; India will be November 1, 2001; and Mexico will be March 1, 2003. These estimates are based on “current demand” in the first 7 ½ months of FY2009, and a lot could change between now and early September when October dates are established (meaning that these predicted cut-off dates may retrogress even more).

General Numbers Update.  Finally, Mr. Oppenheim provided some numbers on the cases pending at various stages of immigrant processing.  There are approximately 25,000 EB-2 and 25,000 EB-3 applications queued at the State Department awaiting visa numbers.  There are ~2.7 million family-based applicants on the waiting list for consular processing.  There also could be ~50,000 employment-based applicants on waiting lists for consular processing.

Conclusion.  The news from Mr. Oppenheim is not good.  Long delays and limits on some categories are to be expected.  Indian and Chinese applicants for EB-2 and EB-3 face years, even decades-long, wait period for a visa number.  EB-1 is also under pressure for Chinese and Indians.   We will continue monitoring the visa numbers and provide updates and reliable predictions as we counsel our clients on the best ways to avoid lengthy green card delays.