Visa Bulletin Updates and Predictions by Charles Oppenheim (January 19, 2012)

Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State.  For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.  He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current.   As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate that Mr. Oppenheim has shared his first-hand knowledge of the demand in the employment-based green card categories and has afforded us to get some advance sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s January 2012 Visa Bulletin Predictions

The main points are that due to lower than anticipated demand in EB filings, EB-2 India and China cutoff dates may move forward by another 6 months in the March 2012 Visa Bulletin, and then slow down (or even retrogress) over the summer.   The slow demand in EB-1 is expected to continue this year as well.

Observations of the Demand in Employment-based Visa Numbers

Unexpectedly Low EB-2 Usage and Rate of Filings.  The employment-based (EB) visa number usage has been very slow in FY2012; as a result, the Department of State (DOS) is moving the dates forward to see how many cases are out there waiting to be filed.  Mr. Oppenheim indicated that he is relying on USCIS and their estimates of the incoming EB I-485 cases (because 85 to 90% of all EB filings are I-485s filed with USCIS).  It seems that USCIS had anticipated a higher demand — the rate of I-485 adjustment of status (AOS) filings has been only 50% of their estimates.

EB-1 Demand Low.   Mr. Oppenheim assumes low usage of EB-1 numbers again this year.  A “fall-down” of 12,000 additional EB-1 numbers into EB-2 is calculated into Mr. Oppenheim’s projections for 2012, although he thinks EB-1 number availability may be down by approximately 1,000 as compared to last year, due to heavier EB-5 usage since unused EB-5 numbers “spill up” to EB-1 and then down to EB-2.     Mr. Oppenheim is very surprised by the severe downturn in EB-1 numbers —  possible reasons are the impact of Kazarian on USCIS filings and demand for EB-1 EA numbers.

EB Visa Bulletin Predictions for 2012

March 2012 Visa Bulletin.   According to Mr. Oppenheim, employment-based priority dates will advance again with the March 2012 Visa Bulletin, very likely by at least a few months.    An advance of six months is possible, although an advance of one year is not likely.    Mr. Oppenheim noted that given current AOS processing times of 4-6 months, filing AOS in March is the last time to get a case possibly approved before the end of the fiscal year on September 30, 2012.

Spring, Summer and rest of FY2012. After some movement in the March (and possibly the April 2012 Visa Bulletin), Mr. Oppenheim expects to hold the priority date over the summer, and then retrogress or advance, as needed and as determined by demand over the summer.  Mr. Oppenheim does not have enough data at this time to predict demand and priority date changes in the last quarter of FY2012.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  Overall, Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are likely to create some mixed feelings among our employment-based clients.   Although EB-2 is likely to continue to move forward over the next one or two months, the long term prospects of EB-3 China and India are not good.

Our office has been very active and aggressive in preparing and timely filing I-485 adjustment of status applications for clients who have become “current” over the past few months.   We will continue to be ready to handle the anticipated forward movement in the EB-2 China and India categories.    Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case or answer any questions.  We are also happy to provide a free quote for preparing and filing your I-485 application.  We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.