EB-2 India and China Prediction and Outlook for the Rest of the Fiscal Year

Our office has actively monitored the Visa Bulletin developments for the past several months, not only by analyzing each Visa Bulletin but also by seeking input from other sources such as demand data, economy and unemployment and, most importantly,  by consulting with Mr. Charles Oppenheim (Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State and also known as the person responsible for the Visa Bulletin cutoff dates movement) when we have had the opportunity to do so.

Throughout the past few months we have been able to assist many clients in preparing and filing their I-485 adjustment of status applications or in processing their immigrant visas through the National Visa Center.    One of the most common questions we get from current and prospective clients is, “How are the cutoff dates for EB-2 India/China going to move in next month’s Visa Bulletin?”   This is especially true after the most recent Visa Bulletin, the April 2012 Visa Bulletin was released earlier this week showing no movement in the EB-2 India/China categories.

EB-2 India/China Category Outlook — No Major Forward Movement, Possible Retrogression

Before we share our own thoughts on the EB-2 India/China outlook, an important disclaimer is necessary.   This is our own opinion and estimate.  It is based on our first hand experience in analyzing the Visa Bulletin for months/years,  by talking with other stakeholders and by gathering official and unofficial public information from Department of State and Citizenship and Immigration Service.    There are so many factors and datapoints (many of which we non-public information) that go into determining the cutoff dates, that we may simply be wrong in our assumptions.

With this in mind, we think that the cutoff dates for EB-2 India and China would remain steady for the rest of the fiscal year (ending on September 30).   Judging by a note published as part of the February 2012 Visa Bulletin and by comments by Charles Oppenheim from January 19, 2012, it seems that the forward movement in EB-2 India and China for this fiscal year is coming to an end.    Mr. Oppenheim had indicated that if visa number demand (I-485 and NVC case filings) continues to be strong over January, February and March, he would need to hold the movement and, possibly, retrogress.

Given the fact that there has been notable demand, indicated by I-485 filings, and given that Mr. Oppenheim has decided to keep the April 2012 Visa Bulletin unchanged for EB-2 India and China, it may be assumed that Mr. Oppenheim has seen sufficient number of filings in order to ensure that no visa numbers go unused for the remainder of the fiscal year.     While it is possible some additional forward movement over the next few Visa Bulletin editions, such movement in EB-2 India/China, if any, is likely to be very small.

Current Priority Date?

Given the possibility of slowdown and/or retrogression in the EB-2 India/China cutoff dates, our office stands ready to assist in the applicable process to take advantage of the recent significant forward movement in the cutoff dates across many of the categories, including applicants in EB-2 India and EB-2 China.   Those applicants whose priority dates are current as of the April 2012 Visa Bulletin may be eligible to process their (and their family members’) I-485 Adjustment of Status applications from within the U.S. or process their immigrant visa at a U.S. Consulate abroad.   Please do not hesitate to contact us if our office can help you take advantage of this significant forward movement in the cutoff dates.    We are also happy to provide a free quote for preparing and filing your I-485 application.

Further Updates and News

We invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  We also invite you to contact us if our office can be of any assistance in your immigration matters or you have any questions or comments about the April 2012 Visa Bulletin or our thoughts about cutoff dates for the next few months.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.