Visa Bulletin Predictions and Comments by Charles Oppenheim – EB-2 India to Advance, Finally (April 2014)

On behalf of our clients and readers we are always trying to obtain any reliable information on the movements in the cutoff dates for the upcoming Visa Bulletins.    The best source of this information is the Mr. Charles Oppenheim who is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State and who is actually the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.    Mr.  Oppenheim had just recently shared some thoughts about the anticipated cutoff date movements in the next few Visa Bulletins and we are happy to share this information with our clients and readers.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-1.   This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.   Also, it is too early in the fiscal year to be able to determine how many unused EB-1 visa numbers there will be to “drop down” into the EB-2 category.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 India.  This is the major headline from Mr. Oppenheim’s comments –  EB-2 India is likely to move forward to January 1, 2008 during the August or (more likely) September Visa Bulletin.   This movement will aim to utilize all of the available visa numbers for the fiscal year that may be unused by other categories (possibly 5,000 or more, but fewer compared to prior years).

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW).  This category has seen increased demand over the past few months (due to the significant movements) and it is unlikely that there will be forward movement in the short term.  In fact, if demand continues at its current pace, there may be a retrogression as early as June 2014.   Retrogression is possible for the last quarter of fiscal year 2014 (Jul-Sep 2014) and this is a call for all EB-3 ROW applicants who are current to file their I-485s as soon as possible.

EB-3 China.    As a result of many EB-2 China applicants “downgrading” to EB-3 it is expected that EB-3 China will see some retrogression over the next month or two.

EB-5 China.  Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is high and a cutoff date may be introduced in August or September.   Retrogression for EB-5 China is “inevitable” given the high number of EB-5 pending applications for Chinese nationals.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Family-Based

Additionally, Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months for the family-based categories as well.

FB-2A.   Demand is starting to increase; as a result, FB-2A Mexico will retrogress soon.  FB-2A ROW is also likely to retrogress, perhaps back to 2012 in the June or July 2014 Visa Bulletin.

FB-2B.  Due to low demand currently, additional forward movement is expected.

Note on Timing of NVC Fee Invoices

Mr. Oppenheim noted that the National Visa Center (NVC) is sending our requests for fee payments about 8 to 12 months in advance of the priority date becoming current (this is change to the previous practice of doing so 12-18 months in advance).    When applicants pay the fee earlier after receipt of the fee invoice, Mr. Oppenheim is able to “see” the demand earlier and adjust the demand in the category accordingly, eliminating the need of major forward movement, followed by a retrogression.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  We understand, as Mr. Oppenheim does, that his comments and predictions would give hope to some, while disappoint others.   Our EB-2 India clients would find Mr. Oppenheim’s predictions encouraging given the fact that there was no movement in EB-2 India for a long time.  A forward movement in this category would allow EB-2 India and China applicants to become eligible to file I-485 applications who would later be eligible to take advantage of AC21 portability rules and take new employment and more freely advance their careers.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case, answer any questions or schedule a consultation.   We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.