Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim – Major Retrogression in EB-2 India; EB-3 ROW and China to Advance (October 1, 2014)

Our office just came back from a discussion session here in Washington, DC with Charles Oppenheim.  Mr. Oppenheim is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State.  For many, he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.  He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.   Our access and proximity to Mr. Oppenheim allows us to provide immediate updates on expected Visa Bulletin movements and we are proud to be among the first to report.

We are asked on a daily basis by our clients to provide visa bulletin predictions and when a particular priority date may become current.   As a result, on behalf of our clients, we appreciate the opportunity Mr. Oppenheim has afforded us to get some sense of the movement of the priority dates and also on short- and long-term immigrant visa number trends.

Summary of Mr. Oppenheim’s Key Points

EB-2 India will retrogress significantly in the November or December 2014 Visa Bulletin — going back to early 2005.   EB-3 India will move very slowly in the near term but EB-3 ROW and China  are expected to move forward significantly.

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim spent a few minutes to describe the visa number allocation process and reiterated the fact that in the employment-based context, especially, the demand for visa numbers is greater because of dependents being added — each green card application case is, therefore, “larger” than previously expected and instead of one visa number, if often includes two or three (because many primary beneficiaries have married and have children).  For example, approximately 45% of the visa numbers are used by the primary beneficiaries with the balance of 55% taken up by derivative beneficiaries (spouses and children).   For example, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that in the not-so-distant past, each employment-based India case took 1.4 visa numbers on average while right now, each employment-based India case takes on average 2.5 visa numbers.

As a result, and in recognition of the additional fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for porting and are now applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3, in addition to EB-2 visa numbers, are expected to remain oversubscribed, particularly for Indian nationals.

He also indicated that there is a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases and the mechanics of the EB-3 to EB-2 porting does not allow advance notification to the Department of State’s Visa Office.   This causes a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases to “appear” without advance warning to the Visa Office and, as a result, the Visa Office has to hold cutoff dates back to accommodate such porting case.   Additionally, Mr. Oppenheim shared that in addition to EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases for Indian nationals, who are the majority of such cases, he sees an increasing number of EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases from nationals of other countries under the “Rest of World” (ROW) category.

Unfortunately, today’s comments by Mr. Oppenheim do not bring much good news, especially for EB-2 India.   Because of the significant number of EB-2 India filings early this year and because of the very high number of EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that EB-2 India will retrogress significantly (to early 2005) in either the upcoming November Visa Bulletin or in the following December Visa Bulletin.   EB-2 India is then expected to remain at early 2005 for a significant time – no forward movement is expected until June 2015 or so.

Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the EB-1 and EB-5 categories are relatively “popular” this year and expects more numbers to be used in these categories, compared to the past years.   He cited EB-5, and specifically EB-5 China, category where demand has been growing steadily and where, for the first time ever, all EB-5 visa numbers have been used.   This high demand also means that there will be less “leftover” visa numbers available to allocate to other categories, such as EB-2 India and China which would further contribute to the slow EB-2 India forward movement.

On a more general level, Mr. Oppenheim shared that his goal is to advance the cutoff dates more at the beginning of the fiscal year (October, November and December, and January visa bulletins) and then, as he is able to gauge demand for a particular preference category, adjust accordingly by either slowing down or retrogressing (if demand is high) or advancing even more (is demand turns out to be low).

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-1.   This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to remain current throughout the fiscal year.

EB-2 China.  This category is expected to continue to move forward by approximately 3-5 weeks per month in each Visa Bulletin.

EB-2 India.  This is the major headline from our meeting with Mr. Oppenheim –  EB-2 India is expected to retrogress significantly – by several years back to early 2005 as early as the next Visa Bulletin.     It is expected that EB-2 India will remain at that level (early 2005) until the summer of 2015.    The rationale behind this severe retrogression in EB-2 India is that there is simply too much “demand” (number of pending cases caused by I-485 filings and EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases, plus adding dependents) in this category and the Visa Office has to stop the rate of new filings until USCIS and DOS are able to approve the pending cases and “clear the demand.”

EB-3 Rest of World (ROW).  This category is expected to move forward significantly over the next months to stimulate “demand” for the following several months.

EB-3 China.  Rapid forward movement is expected – perhaps advancing to late 2009 or early 2010 over the next few months.

EB-3 India.  Unfortunately, this category continues to be oversubscribed and there is very little or no forward movement expected in the next months.   Forward movement of 1-2 weeks per month should be the normal.      The simple reason is that there are many EB-3 India cases which are waiting a visa number – there are 25,000-30,000 preadjudicated EB-3 India cases with a priority date before July 2007 waiting for a visa number.    With annual limit for this category of about 2,800, it would take a long time to clear this backlog and be able to advance the priority date beyond July 2007.

However, as a positive sign, as many EB-3 India applicants are porting into EB-2, there is some possibility that some EB-3 visa numbers may be “freed” simply because some EB-3 candidates will drop out of the EB-3 demand line after receiving a green card under a newly ported EB-2 category.

EB-5.   Mr. Oppenheim suggested that the demand for EB-5 is at the highest level ever.    For the next fiscal year EB-5 is expected to be current for everyone except EB-5 China (which takes about 85% of all EB-5 immigrant visas).    It is possible to introduce an EB-5 cutoff date for China which may mean one or two year wait for a visa number (including issues relating to minor dependents aging out).

On Predicting the Visa Bulletin Cutoff Dates

Mr. Oppenheim shared his thoughts on the ability  of others outside of his office to predict reliably the cutoff date movements.   He suggested that while some of the datapoints that go into determining the cutoff dates are available — demand data, number filings — there is so much more (variables and data, some of which is impossible to get) that goes into a cutoff date determination in each visa bulletin that a reliable prediction is impossible for anyone including, sometimes, the Visa Office of Mr. Oppenheim.   There are many variables that affect the demand.  For example, the retrogression of EB-2 India in the future is due to the number of I-485 filings but also due to the fact that there are “extraordinary number” of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases.   Mr. Oppenheim cannot predict how many of the EB-3 India candidates will end up porting into EB-2 — as a result, by the time he “sees” an EB-2 India case, he has not anticipated for it and has to slow down or retrogress EB-2 India to be able to accommodate EB-2 India applicants with early  priority dates.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  We understand, as Mr. Oppenheim does, that his comments and predictions are going to cause significant disappointment in EB-2 and EB-2 India applicants, specifically.     Our EB-2 India clients would find Mr. Oppenheim’s predictions disappointing, especially since many EB-2 India applicants were able to get very close to being current earlier this year.    Fortunately, those EB-2 India and China applicants who became current earlier this year and were able to file I-485 applications would  be able to take advantage of AC21 portability rules and take new employment and more freely advance their careers.

Also, many EB-3 India candidates who now qualify for EB-2 would be able to improve their waiting times dramatically by upgrading to EB-2.   We are happy to help analyze and assist in such EB-3 to EB-2 India or China porting cases.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case, answer any questions or schedule a consultation.   We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.