Visa Bulletin Updates from Mr. Charles Oppenheim (May 2015)

Our office closely monitors not only each monthly Visa Bulletin but also any developments and updates from here in Washington, DC which may give us some idea on upcoming movements and surprises.   Our goal is to share any and all credible information with our clients and readers in order to allow proper planning and to set expectations as realistically as possible.

Mr. Charles Oppenheim, who is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State and the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin, has provided some thoughts and his expectations for the upcoming few months’ Visa Bulletin movements.    These comments are as of May 14, 2015.

EB-2 Worldwide (ROW)

Mr. Oppenheim indicated that there is significant increase in the demand of visa numbers in this category with demand far in excess of the historical patterns of the previous five months.    As an example, Mr. Oppenheim indicated that there was 80% demand increase from February to March 2015 and demand increased more than 100% between February and April 2015.     Despite this significant increase in demand in EB-2 ROW visa numbers, it is not expected at this time that there will be a cutoff date for this category and it is likely to remain current.

EB-2/EB-3 China

Demand in EB-2 China has been low and may result in numbers “falling down” and being allocated to EB-3 China.   Recently, the EB-2 China cut-off date has been advanced by almost three years with the hope that this kind of movement will create demand.   Earlier when the cut-off date for China EB-3 was advanced due to insufficient number use, it prompted EB-2s to downgrade to EB-3. Mr. Oppenheim does not have good “visibility” over the number of upgrades or downgrades as no data is available to him until final action occurs on the petition.   This makes it difficult to predict reliably how many China candidates are ready for EB-2 or EB-3 adjudication – as a result, sudden movements in the cutoff dates are possible.

While our office has been helping a number of EB-2 China applicants downgrade to EB-3 in order to take advantage of the dates over the past few months, we have always cautioned that this kind of downgrade is not for everyone and that over long-term, EB-2 China would still be the better category for ultimately the fastest green card approval.

EB-5 China

The cut-off date of May 1, 2013 that was imposed in the May 2015 Visa Bulletin will remain for June. Mr. Oppenheim continues to monitor demand for EB-5 China and has no additional predictions for the category at this time.  Applicants continue to become documentarily qualified and the level of demand in May was within his targeted projections for June number use. There is huge demand in terms of petitions pending final action at USCIS as well as approved petitions which are already at the NVC. It must be remembered that not all cases with a priority date earlier than May 1, 2013 have been processed to conclusion.

EB-3/Other Workers Philippines

Heavy demand in these categories continues and further corrective action (retrogression) may be necessary before the end of the fiscal year. Like the dramatic increase in worldwide EB-2 demand, the use of more than 2,000 numbers during a two-month period was totally unexpected based on USCIS demand from the past year.   This kind of surge in the demand of Philippine visa numbers is likely to cause long wait times for EB-3/OW candidates.

EB-2 India

The increase in demand for EB-2 ROW visa numbers which we mentioned above would mean that there will be fewer visa numbers remaining available for allocation to EB-2 India.   Mr. Oppenheim had previously indicated that he expects to advance EB-2 India to July/August 2009 by the end of the fiscal year (September 30, 2015); however, given the high demand for EB-2 ROW visa numbers and fewer available visas for EB-2 India, this kind of forward movement in EB-2 India may not be possible over the next few months.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.   Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case, answer any questions or schedule a consultation.

We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.