Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (January 13, 2017)

Every day, our office receives numerous inquiries and questions about the anticipated movements in the Visa Bulletin cutoff dates.    So when we have reliable information, we are happy to share with our readers and clients.    Mr. Charles Oppenheim, who is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State, has provided some information about anticipated movement in the cutoff dates.   For those who are not familiar who Mr. Oppenheim is – he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.  He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim noted that in recognition of the fact that many EB-3 India and China candidates are now eligible for porting and are now applying under the EB-2 category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-3, in addition to EB-2 visa numbers, are expected to remain oversubscribed, particularly for Indian nationals.

He also indicated that there is a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases and the mechanics of the EB-3 to EB-2 porting do not allow advance notification to the Department of State’s Visa Office.   This causes a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases to “appear” without advance warning to the Visa Office and, as a result, the Visa Office has to hold cutoff dates back (or to retrogress) to accommodate such porting case.

Similarly, there has been high demand in EB-1 India and China, which means there is strong likelihood for a cutoff date to be imposed over the next few months.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-1 Rest of World (ROW).   This category seems strong demand and it is expected that a cutoff date will be imposed for EB-1 India and EB-1 China at some time within the following several months   When this happens, the dates are expected as far back to 2010.   Such cutoff date and retrogression is likely to be short-lived and the EB-1 India/China categories are expected to become current again once the new fiscal year rolls over on October 1, 2017.

EB-2 India.  Due to significant numbers of EB-3 to EB-2 “porters”, EB-2 India will likely not advance for the next month or two.  If the demand for EB-2 ROW remains strong (as it is now), then it is possible that EB-2 India may not advance much and recover the dates from last year’s retrogression.   Not much, if any, movement is expected in this category until at least July or August.

EB-2 China.  Demand is not as strong as expected and further forward movement is expected.

EB-3 ROW.  This category is expected to move forward gradually over the next months to continue to stimulate “demand”.

EB-3 China. This category is expected to advance gradually, in an effort to monitor any EB-2 to EB-3 “downgrades” who aim to take advantage of the more favorable priority date under EB-3 China.

EB-3 India.  Gradual (but very slow) forward movement is expected.

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  We urge EB-1 India/China applicants to be aware of the possibility of a cutoff date being introduced for a month or two late in the summer.    With respect to EB-2 India and China, the high demand likely means that there may not be much notable movement until the new fiscal year begins on October 1, 2017 and the annual visa number allocations are reset.

Many EB-3 India candidates who now qualify for EB-2 would be able to improve their waiting times dramatically by upgrading to EB-2.   We are happy to help analyze and assist in such EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case, answer any questions or schedule a consultation.   We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.