Mid-October Visa Bulletin Expectations: EB-1 Slow Movement; EB-3 India to Advance Significantly

As has become a regular practice, our office has obtained an updated set of expected cutoff date movements over the next several months.    Mr. Charles Oppenheim, the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS) (he is the person responsible for the Visa Bulletin), has provided updated explanations and expectations for the following months.  The main takeaway is that EB-1 (ROW, India and China) may advance albeit very gradually in the near future; also, EB-3 India is expected to advance notably which makes it likely that it will be more advanced that EB-2 India over the coming months.

EB-1 – Slow Movement Expected

Mr. Oppenheim sees the opportunity for some forward movement as early as the December 2018 Visa Bulletin for EB-1 ROW, India and China; however, these categories are not expected to return to “current” before the end of the calendar year.     Mr. Oppenheim also cautions that EB-1 ROW should not be expected to return to current in the foreseeable future and this is likely to remain the case at least through the first half of the fiscal year (or until Spring of 2019).

EB-2 and EB-3 China

Based on available demand data, it should be expected for EB-2 China to continue to advance while current demand in EB-3 China continues to be heavy, prohibiting forward advancement at this time.  It is not clear whether this increase in EB-3 China filings is due to downgrades from EB-2 or new EB-3 filings. This creates the possibility that EB-2 China will surpass EB-3 China again.

EB-2 and EB-3 India

Mr. Oppenheim expects very limited, if any, movement for EB-2 India – forward movement in the December 2018 Visa Bulletin is expected to be limited to a week, if any.    At the same time, the demand in EB-3 India is “light”, so a notable forward movement in EB-3 India can be expected in December – very likely several weeks and possibly even a few months.

According to Mr. Oppenheim,  EB-3 India’s final action date rapid forward movement over the past year makes it likely that EB-3 India could surpass EB-2 India at some point this fiscal year.   This creates an opportunity for downgrading from EB-2 to EB-3 India in order to get a more advantageous cutoff date.

Further Updates and News

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