Visa Bulletin Predictions and Updates from Charles Oppenheim (October 24, 2019)

Every day, our office receives numerous inquiries and questions about the anticipated movements in the Visa Bulletin cutoff dates.    So when we have reliable information, we are happy to share with our readers and clients.    Mr. Charles Oppenheim, who is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division at the U.S. Department of State, has provided some information about anticipated movement in the cutoff dates.   For those who are not familiar who Mr. Oppenheim is – he is simply known as the person responsible for the monthly and annual visa number allocations for family- and employment-based green cards.  He is also the person who prepares and publishes the monthly visa bulletin which is highly anticipated every month.

General Visa Number Trends

Mr. Oppenheim noted that in recognition of the fact that many EB-2 and EB-3 India candidates are now eligible for upgrading to a higher preference category, Mr. Oppenheim noted that the EB-1 India numbers are expected to remain oversubscribed. For instance, he reported that there are 17,000 pre-adjudicated EB-1 India requests pending for visa numbers (USCIS and consular posts) so the following several months should not bring forward movement; however, there may be forward movement in early 2020 due to unused visa numbers in other categories.

He also indicated that there is a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 India porting cases and the mechanics of the EB-3 to EB-2 porting do not allow advance notification to the Department of State’s Visa Office.   This causes a significant number of EB-3 to EB-2 porting cases to “appear” without advance warning to the Visa Office and, as a result, the Visa Office has to hold cutoff dates back (or to retrogress) to accommodate such porting case.

Similarly, there has been high demand in EB-1 India and China, which means there is strong likelihood for a cutoff date to be imposed over the next few months.

Visa Bulletin Predictions – Employment-Based

Mr. Oppenheim was able to provide some predictions and expectations for movement of visa numbers over the next few months.   Please note that these are short-term predictions and depending on the number of applications as a result of the next few months’ visa numbers, the rate of cutoff date movement may change.

EB-1 Rest of World (ROW).   Latest demand reports shows significantly lower demand than anticipated and compared to prior years and if this trend continues then EB-1 ROW could return to current at some time during the fiscal year (October 1, 2019 to September 30, 2020) but this is unlikely to happen prior to April 2020. If this happens, then EB-1 India, and possibly China, would benefit from unused visa numbers and see notable forward movement.

EB-1 India. No forward movement is expected through at least January 2020 but if the demand in EB-1 ROW remains low there is possibility for significant forward movement of up to 6-8 months.

EB-2 ROW. Expected to remain current for the foreseeable future.

EB-2 India.  Mr. Oppenheim reported an increase in upgrades from EB-3 to EB-2 which means that EB-2 India is likely to continue to remain unchanged or move by a few days at a time.

EB-2 China.    Since the Final Action Date for EB-3 China (November 1, 2015) is eight months ahead of EB-2 China, this is likely to result downgrades which could take the pressure off of EB-2 China demand, causing the EB-2 China category to advance.

EB-3 ROW.  Mr. Oppenheim has observed surprisingly high numbers in this category which has been significantly higher (by thousands) than it has been in the past. While EB-3 ROW is expected to remain current, a cutoff date is possible in January 2020 or shortly thereafter.

EB-3 India. Little to no forward movement expected.

EB-3 China. A very high level of downgrades was recorded recently and if this trend continues it will limit any forward movement in EB-3 China (but may allow EB-2 China to advance faster).

Conclusion

Mr. Oppenheim’s comments are extremely helpful to get a sense of the visa cutoff dates over the next few months.  We urge EB-1 India applicants to be aware of the possibility of a cutoff date advancement in early 2020. At the same time, EB-3 ROW applicants should be prepared for possible cutoff date introduction in the first months of 2020.

Please do not hesitate to contact us if we can review your case, answer any questions or schedule a consultation.   We also invite you to subscribe to our free weekly immigration newsletter to receive timely updates on this and related topics.  Finally, if you already haven’t, please consider our Visa Bulletin Predictions tool which provides personalized predictions and charts helping you understand when a particular priority date may become current and what are the movement patterns.