Anticipating the October 2012 Visa Bulletin

Our office has been handling an extraordinary amount of inquiries by clients and readers with respect to the upcoming October 2012 Visa Bulletin.    We wanted to share some information with our clients and readers as we wait the release of this highly-anticipated Visa Bulletin.

Why is the October 2012 Visa Bulletin So Highly Anticipated

The October 2012 Visa Bulletin is very highly anticipated – by far more than any other month’s Visa Bulletin – because it is the first Visa Bulletin for the government’s fiscal year.   Because the cutoff dates in each Visa Bulletin are determined by demand of visa numbers for green cards, and because the government has a quota on the number of green cards which can be approved each fiscal year, the first Visa Bulletin for the fiscal year is the October Visa Bulletin.

Based on the October Visa Bulletin, we are often be able to get a good sense on the demand of green cards for the fiscal year and the possible cutoff date movements for the months further in the year.  Also, many applicants who have been affected by a cutoff date or retrogression in the last months of the prior fiscal year are eager to see if their priority date will be current.

Expected Release of the October 2012 Visa Bulletin

Normally,  the Department of State releases each month’s Visa Bulletin around 8-12 days into the prior month.   This means that we expect to see the October 2012 Visa Bulletin around September 8-12th.   The Visa Bulletin is published online at the Department of State website.  Publication during the weekend is unlikely.

Our office makes it a priority to get an immediate notification of the publication of the Visa Bulletin and to provide and distribute an announcement and analysis of the cutoff dates for all categories immediately after publication.   Often we are able to analyze the newly-released Visa Bulletin and distribute an alert to our clients within an  hour or two after publication.     Please check our website, twitter, facebook or subscribe to our newsletter to get this kind of alerts.

Expectations and Predictions for the October 2012 Visa Bulletin

While we cannot provide a reliable prediction or inside information, we think (based on educated estimates and and by monitoring the Visa Bulletin movements over a longer term), that the EB-2 India and China cutoff dates will become available again and will have a cutoff date of mid- to late 2007.   The Department of State, in an explicit note in the June 2012 Visa Bulletin, has warned that although they will make every attempt to move the cutoff dates back to May 1, 2010 where they were a few months ago, it may take until Spring of 2013 to do so.

We also expect EB-2 Rest of World (ROW) to become available and current again.   We saw EB-2 ROW retrogress in the July 2012 Visa Bulletin in order to control the number of EB-2 ROW cases for the remainder of the fiscal year (which is to end on September 30th).   With the beginning of a new fiscal year on October 1st, we expect that EB-2 ROW will be “Current” again.